{
 "schema_version": 1,
 "generated": "2026-10-26",
 "id": "bennyjo-phil--audit-phil-calibration-against-market-price",
 "repo": "bennyjo/phil",
 "repo_url": "https://github.com/bennyjo/phil",
 "repo_slug": "bennyjo-phil",
 "title": "Audit whether Phil beats the market price",
 "page_title": "How to audit whether Phil beats the market price with Phil",
 "summary": "Run the offline score report to check if Phil's probabilities beat Polymarket's own prices.",
 "who": "A researcher or forecaster who wants evidence, not P&L, on whether an AI agent forecasts better than the market.",
 "problem": "Profit alone does not show skill. You need to know whether the agent's probability is a better forecast than the price the market already showed.",
 "outcome": "A calibration and P&L report from the journal, with the brier_delta metric that compares the agent's forecasts to market prices.",
 "steps": [
  "`git clone https://github.com/bennyjo/phil.git`",
  "`cd phil`",
  "`python3 core/score.py --skip-mtm` (inferred, check the README)",
  "Read the calibration section and find brier_delta.",
  "Open the newest file in `journal/retros/` and compare its conclusions with the score."
 ],
 "agent_prompt": "Clone https://github.com/bennyjo/phil, run `python3 core/score.py --skip-mtm` offline, and report the calibration results and the brier_delta value. Verify that the report states whether the agent's probabilities beat the market price, and say so if it does not.",
 "agents": [
  "claude-code"
 ],
 "difficulty": "Intermediate",
 "time": "15 minutes",
 "basis": "readme",
 "caveat": "The score is from paper trades that Phil made in its own repository, so the result describes this one experiment and does not show general trading skill.",
 "category": "Money",
 "tags": [
  "Money"
 ],
 "lang": "python",
 "requirements": [
  "Python 3 (CI runs on Python 3.12); the engine uses the standard library only",
  "git and a clone of the repository",
  "A Claude Code account and the `claude` command on your PATH, for running cycles",
  "A fork with write access to origin, or no origin remote for local-only runs",
  "Pearl Connect installed from pearl.you/connect and a funded Safe, only for real-money mode"
 ],
 "risk": "sensitive",
 "seen_in_the_wild": false,
 "mentioned_publicly": false,
 "risks": [],
 "best": true,
 "score": 1.0,
 "evidence": [],
 "url": "https://dedupedai.com/use-cases/bennyjo-phil/audit-phil-calibration-against-market-price/",
 "md": "https://dedupedai.com/use-cases/bennyjo-phil/audit-phil-calibration-against-market-price/index.md",
 "disclaimer": "Deduped lists open-source repositories that belong to other people. We do not own, maintain, audit, or vouch for any of them, and a repo appearing here is not an endorsement or a safety check. The use cases, steps, and prompts are written by AI and may be incomplete, outdated, or just wrong. Where a use case is marked \"Seen in the wild\", we link to public posts where someone described something similar, but we have not verified those posts and the use case itself is still our AI's own write-up. Use all of this at your own risk. Only run code, commands, or agents on systems and accounts you are authorized to use, and read the code and every command before you run it, especially anything that touches credentials, files, or the network. Nothing here is professional, security, legal, or financial advice. All trademarks and project names belong to their respective owners, and their use here does not imply affiliation. Content is provided as is, without warranties of any kind. Found a mistake, a safety problem, or something you want removed? Email hello@dedupedai.com and we will look at it promptly.",
 "api": "https://dedupedai.com/api/v1/usecases/bennyjo-phil--audit-phil-calibration-against-market-price.json",
 "api_version": "v1"
}