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How to put your own model on a sealed forecasting board with Brier

Add an API key so your model answers sealed questions and gets graded alongside the built-in panel.

Short answer: Clone the repo and install it so the Brier command is available; then add your model's API key to a .env file in the project root, as the README describes; run brier ask to pose a question with its date, source and test, then let the panel answer. All steps.

  • Research
  • Advanced
  • 1 hour
  • From the README
  • Any agent

Credentials. Your model API key is stored in a local .env file, so keep that file out of version control and never paste the key into shared logs.

Who it is forA team evaluating whether an LLM's stated probabilities deserve trust before using it in a decision workflow.

The problemModel answers about future events are rarely recorded before the outcome, so their accuracy cannot be checked fairly.

The outcomeYour model's sealed answers appear on the same scoreboard as the four built-in forecasters, graded the same way after questions resolve.

What you need first

  • A terminal with Node.js and npx, since the README's commands run through npx
  • An API key in a .env file, only if you want your own models on the board
  • A wallet you control, only if you want to anchor the head hash on Robinhood Chain

Steps

  1. Clone the repo and install it so the Brier command is available.
  2. Add your model's API key to a .env file in the project root, as the README describes. (inferred, check the README)
  3. Run brier ask to pose a question with its date, source and test, then let the panel answer. (inferred, check the README)
  4. Wait until the resolution date passes, then run npx brier score to see your model's row.

Prompt for your agent

Work in the Noisyxl/brier repo and add the API key for <model-provider> to .env. Ask one question with a future resolution date, wait for it to settle, and run `npx brier score`. Verify that <model-name> appears on the scoreboard with a Brier score before reporting.

Caveat. Questions only settle after their resolution date, so a meaningful score requires waiting weeks and building up a set of resolved questions.

Use this in your AI agent

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Using the Deduped MCP, get the setup steps for Noisyxl/brier and "Put your own model on a sealed forecasting board"

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