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How to use Brier: what you can do with it

What is Brier? brier is a prediction ledger for language models that seals each probability with a hash chain before the answer exists, then grades the sealed forecasts with proper scoring rules.

How do I use it? Open a terminal in an empty folder with Node.js installed; then run npx brier demo && npx brier score; read the row for each forecaster and compare the said column with the right column. Full steps below.

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What do you want to do?

4 use cases

  • See a forecaster's calibration gap in four seconds

    Run the bundled demo and score it to see how stated confidence compares with actual hit rate.

    View prompt
    Use the Noisyxl/brier repo. Run `npx brier demo && npx brier score` in a clean directory and report the said, right, gap and skill columns for each forecaster. Verify that the output includes an always-yes row before summarizing.

  • Put your own model on a sealed forecasting board

    Add an API key so your model answers sealed questions and gets graded alongside the built-in panel.

    View prompt
    Work in the Noisyxl/brier repo and add the API key for <model-provider> to .env. Ask one question with a future resolution date, wait for it to settle, and run `npx brier score`. Verify that <model-name> appears on the scoreboard with a Brier score before reporting.

  • Detect any edited forecast in a ledger file

    Run the verify command to find the exact line where a sealed probability was changed.

    View prompt
    In the Noisyxl/brier repo, run `brier ledger --verify` on the ledger file at <path-to-ledger>. Report whether the chain is intact, and if not, the exact line the command names. Verify the output text before stating a result.

  • Date a forecast ledger on Robinhood Chain

    Anchor the ledger head hash to a block so its existence date does not rest on the author's word.

    View prompt
    In the Noisyxl/brier repo, run `brier anchor` and report the head hash and the command it prints. After the owner broadcasts the transaction, run `brier anchor --check` and verify that every anchor still matches before reporting success.

Quick start with Brier

  1. Check you have what it needs: A terminal with Node.js and npx, since the README's commands run through npx; An API key in a .env file, only if you want your own models on the board; A wallet you control, only if you want to anchor the head hash on Robinhood Chain.
  2. Open Noisyxl/brier on GitHub and read the README and license.
  3. Open a terminal in an empty folder with Node.js installed.
  4. Run npx brier demo && npx brier score.
  5. Read the row for each forecaster and compare the said column with the right column.
  6. Check the always-yes row to see how a trivial forecaster scores on the same question set.

These steps come from our top use case, See a forecaster's calibration gap in four seconds, which also has a copy-paste agent prompt.

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About this repo

  • Who it is forBuilt for people and agents who make probability forecasts and want an honest, tamper-evident record of how well those forecasts did.
  • Why it is hot116 stars, launched 50 days ago
  • LanguageHTML
  • Sourcegithub.com/Noisyxl/brier · Back to Hot repos

Requirements

  • A terminal with Node.js and npx, since the README's commands run through npx
  • An API key in a .env file, only if you want your own models on the board
  • A wallet you control, only if you want to anchor the head hash on Robinhood Chain

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Questions about Brier

What is Brier?

brier is a prediction ledger for language models that seals each probability with a hash chain before the answer exists, then grades the sealed forecasts with proper scoring rules. It is an open-source project on GitHub: https://github.com/Noisyxl/brier.

How do I use Brier?

Open a terminal in an empty folder with Node.js installed; then run npx brier demo && npx brier score; read the row for each forecaster and compare the said column with the right column. The use cases on this page give the full steps and a copy-paste agent prompt for each job.

Who is Brier for?

Built for people and agents who make probability forecasts and want an honest, tamper-evident record of how well those forecasts did.

What can I do with Brier?

4 use cases so far, for example: See a forecaster's calibration gap in four seconds; Put your own model on a sealed forecasting board; Detect any edited forecast in a ledger file. Each has steps and a copy-paste agent prompt.

What do I need to run Brier?

A terminal with Node.js and npx, since the README's commands run through npx; An API key in a .env file, only if you want your own models on the board; A wallet you control, only if you want to anchor the head hash on Robinhood Chain.

What are alternatives to Brier?

Other hot AI repos in Research: Scientific Agent Skills, PersonaPlex, PageIndex, Book to Skill, Scientific Figure Library.

Is Brier safe to run?

Deduped does not own, audit or vouch for it. Read the README and license, run it on your own systems first and review every command before you run it.