Anthropic staff expect AI to do about 75% of their work by 2030

Anthropic published a study of its own workforce on October 16, built from HR records, agent telemetry, calendars, internal chat patterns and hiring scorecards, plus interviews with 17 employees. One finding stands out: Anthropic staff expect AI to perform about 75% of their current work by 2030, far above the 28% that US workers say they expect.

The report also shows a company becoming less junior. Since early 2025, junior employees fell from 21% to 14% of technical staff, and junior candidates dropped from 27% to 9% of technical hires. Headcount still tripled over the past year, so this is about who gets hired rather than layoffs.

Agents now do much of the raw work. By August, the agents employees directed logged about six hours for every hour their humans worked, yet interactive sessions spent roughly 80% of their time idle, waiting for a person. Around one in five survey respondents said their role had shifted from doing tasks to managing agents. Meetings rose too: the median employee spends 20% more time in them than a year ago.

The authors caution that this is one fast-growing company that builds the tool, and that much of the data cannot prove cause and effect.

Our take

The 75% figure says more about expectations inside an AI lab than about the wider economy. The more useful signal is the shape of the work: fewer junior hires, more supervision, and human attention as the bottleneck.